Storm Team 4 is monitoring a severe weather potential across the Midwest and Wisconsin today. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and again this evening. Much of southeast Wisconsin has been placed under an Enhanced (Level 3) risk of severe weather.
Overnight lows have only fallen into the upper 40s and lower 40s thanks to an increasing southerly wind. That wind will pick up throughout the day, bolstering temperatures into the 70s and lower 80s. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 40 mph.
Meanwhile, a strong low-pressure system will move northward across Minnesota today, dragging a warm front far north into Wisconsin. Strong winds aloft, combined with increasing dew points and temperatures, will lead to a highly charged environment—primed for potential severe weather.
As the warm front moves north this morning, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across Wisconsin. While the overall severe potential is low, some hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of these storms. Many in southeast Wisconsin may miss out on this activity.
When to watch out for stronger storms:
A strong low-level jet will carry in warmer air aloft, serving as a "lid" or "cap" on our unstable atmosphere. Many high-resolution models struggle to initiate storms, suggesting that the cap may be too strong for any afternoon development. However, should any storms initiate, they would quickly turn strong to severe. All types of severe weather—hail, wind, and tornadoes—are possible.
Later this evening and after sunset, storms that initiate across Minnesota and western Wisconsin will push eastward ahead of a cold front. These storms are anticipated to congeal into a line, posing a gusty wind threat into the overnight hours. Storms will exit southeast Wisconsin early Tuesday morning, prior to daybreak. There may be a few lingering showers by Tuesday morning, but most rain will be over by the morning commute.
Gusty winds will continue overnight and behind the frontal boundary. Tuesday's high temperature will be reached in the morning before falling into the 50s and 60s by mid-afternoon. By Wednesday morning, lows will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Another round of showers is possible late Wednesday into Thursday and again on Friday.
MONDAY: Chance Storms - Some Strong; Otherwise warm & windyHigh: 75 Lake 81 Inland
Wind: SE 10-20 G 40 mph
TONIGHT: Chance Showers/Storms; Some strong; Windy with Rain tapering off around daybreak
Low: 58
Wind: S 20-25 G 40 mph
TUESDAY: Chance Showers Early; Partly Sunny, Breezy, Falling Temperatures
High: 68; Falling to 60 by 3 pm
WEDNESDAY: Mostly Cloudy; Chance PM Shower
High: 52
THURSDAY: Rain Likely
High: 57
FRIDAY: Chance Showers; Mostly Cloudy
High: 56
It’s about time to watch on your time. Stream local news and weather 24/7 by searching for “TMJ4” on your device.
Available for download on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, and more.
