Ron Johnson leading Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, poll finds

52% of respondents say they support Ron Johnson and 46% of respondents say they support Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race, according to a new Marquette Law School Poll.

That's compared to the poll's findings in September when Johnson received 49% and Barnes received 48%.

The poll, released Wednesday with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, was conducted Oct. 3-9, 2022 with 801 Wisconsin registered voters.

Meanwhile, the poll found more of a toss-up in the race for Wisconsin's governor between Tony Evers and Tim Michels.

47% support Evers while 46% support Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is supported by 4% though she ended her campaign on Sept. 6 but will remain on the November ballot.

That's compared to Marquette's poll in September when Evers received 47%, Michels 44%, and Beglinger 5%.

VIEW THE POLL ON THEIR WEBSITE HERE.

VIEW THE POLL'S VERBATIM RESULTS BELOW:

Table 1: Vote for Governor

(a) Likely voters

(b) Registered voters

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among likely voters from August to October and among registered voters since June.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

(b) Registered voters

Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 96% of Democrats supporting Evers and 88% of Republicans supporting Michels, a small decline in GOP support for Michels since September. Forty-three percent of independents back Evers, while 44% prefer Michels, a tightening of preferences among independents since September and August. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 7% from independent voters, 4% from Republicans, and 1% from Democrats.

Table 3: Vote for governor, by party identification, among likely voters

(a) October

(b) September

(c) August

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4 among likely voters. Partisans are strongly aligned with their party’s candidates, with 93% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 96% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Forty-five percent of independents back Barnes, while 51% prefer Johnson. In September, 46% favored Barnes and 48% backed Johnson, a smaller shift among independents than seen between August and September.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate, by party identification, among likely voters

(a) October

(b) September

(c) August

Differences in the likelihood of voting, and in vote preference by certainty of voting, account for the different results between likely voters and all registered voters. Among Republicans, 84% say they are absolutely certain to vote in November’s elections or have already voted, as do 83% of Democrats and 69% of independents. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5. In September, Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were certain to vote.

Table 5: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices—are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote? (Certain includes those who have already voted) by party identification

(a) October

(b) September

(c) August

The effect of different levels of turnout on vote for governor is shown in Table 6. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, with the second row showing the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote. The third row shows the results among only the most likely voters: those who say they are absolutely certain to vote (a category generally said to constitute “likely voters”).

Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting

The vote preferences of those less than certain to vote differ from the preferences among those describing themselves as certain to vote, which also affects the difference in vote margin between likely voters and all registered voters. Table 7 shows vote for governor comparing those absolutely certain to vote and those who say they are not certain to vote.

Table 7: Vote for governor by certain or less than certain to vote

Table 8 shows the vote for U.S. Senate by likelihood of voting groupings.

Table 8: Vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting

Table 9 shows vote preference for Senate comparing those absolutely certain to vote and those who say they are not certain to vote. As with the vote for governor, candidate preference differs by certainty of voting.

Table 9: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certain or less than certain to vote

Perceived candidate ideology

Table 10 shows the perceived ideology of the Senate candidates, from “very liberal” to “very conservative.” For comparison, the self-described ideology of voters is included in the table. Both candidates are perceived as more strongly ideological than voters describe themselves. Voters are much more likely to describe themselves as “moderate” than to describe either candidate that way. Barnes is seen as “very liberal” by 32%, and Johnson is seen as “very conservative” by 37%. By comparison, 6% describe themselves as “very liberal” and 9% say they are “very conservative.”

Table 10: Perceived ideology of Senate candidates (among registered voters)

The candidates for governor are also seen as more ideological than the public sees itself, as shown in Table 11. Evers is seen as “very liberal” by 25%, and Michels is seen as “very conservative” by 32%. More see Evers as “moderate,” 23%, than see Michels that way, 8%. Neither matches the percent of self-described moderates in the electorate.

Table 11: Perceived ideology of gubernatorial candidates (among registered voters)

Perception of the candidates’ ideology varies with the voters’ self-described ideology. Voters who are very liberal, for example, tend to describe the Republican candidates as “very conservative,” while those who are very conservative tend to describe the Democratic candidates as “very liberal.” Those candidates in the same ideological camp as the voter are generally not seen as being so extreme, although voters who describe themselves as very conservative are somewhat more likely than not to describe Johnson as also very conservative. These relationships are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Perceived candidate ideology, by self-described ideology (among registered voters)

(a) Mandela Barnes

(b) Ron Johnson

(c) Tony Evers

(d) Tim Michels

Perceived candidate traits

Table 13 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with those respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, although they remain less well known than the incumbents.

Table 13: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (among registered voters)

(a) Evers

(b) Michels

(c) Beglinger

(d) Barnes

(e) Johnson

Table 14 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin.

Table 14: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (among registered voters)

(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?

(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?

Table 15 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.” The relative lack of familiarity with the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, is evident in the higher percentages that say they “don’t know” about them compared to the two incumbents, Evers and Johnson.

Table 15: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values or don’t they share your values? (among registered voters)

Evers job approval

Table 16 shows approval of how Evers has handled his job as governor since February 2022.

Table 16: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (among registered voters)

Important issues

In each Marquette Law School Poll since August 2021, respondents have been asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Table 17 shows the concern with nine issues in the current survey, sorted from highest to lowest percent saying they are “very concerned.”

Table 17: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with … (among registered voters)

Inflation ranks as the top issue concern. After peaking in June, concern about inflation has been slightly lower since August, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Partisans differ substantially in their concern over particular issues, as shown in Table 19. Panel (a) is sorted by Republican concern, panel (b) is sorted by concern among Democrats and panel (c) is sorted by concern among independents. The entries are the percent of each partisan group who say they are “very concerned” about the issue. Republicans and Democrats have different top concerns, inflation and crime for Republicans, abortion policy and gun violence for Democrats, while independents put public schools as their top concern, followed by inflation.

Table 19: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (among registered voters)

(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans

(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats

(c) Sorted by concern among Independents

Gender differences also appear across issues. Women are notably more concerned with gun violence and abortion policy than are men, while men are substantially more concerned with taxes than are women. Inflation is a substantial and similar level of concern for both men and women. Gender differences in concern on other issues are modest.

Table 20: Issue concerns by gender, percent “very concerned” (among registered voters)

(a) Sorted by concern among women

(b) Sorted by concern among men

Abortion

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed by a majority of Wisconsin registered voters, including majorities of independents and Democrats, while it is favored by a majority of Republicans in the state, as shown in Table 21. There has been little change in opinion on this since August.

Table 21: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) October

(b) September

(c) August

The survey respondents overwhelmingly support allowing legal abortions in the case of rape or incest. Support within each partisan group is 70% or more, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) October

(b) September

(c) August

Marijuana legalization

About two-thirds of registered voters, 64%, favor legalization of marijuana, with 30% opposed. Table 23 shows the total and partisan views of this issue.

Table 23: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? (among registered voters)

Views of legalization of marijuana have changed significantly since 2013, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? since 2013 (among registered voters)

Fear of crime

While 56% say they are very concerned with crime, a large majority, 77%, say they feel safe going about their daily activities. Twenty-one percent of respondents say they worry about their safety. On this item, there are moderate partisan differences, and large majorities of each partisan group say they feel safe, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

While generally not worried about their personal safety, Republicans express considerably greater concern than Democrats about crime as an issue, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Worry about personal safety is greater in the City of Milwaukee than in other areas of the state, as shown in Table 27, which combines data from October 2021 and April, September, and October 2022 to provide regional comparisons.

Table 27: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? by region, Oct. 2021, April, Sept. & Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

While those in the Milwaukee area outside of the city are much less worried about personal safety than are residents of the city, they express similarly high levels of concern about crime to those in the city. Those in other regions of the state express lower levels of concern. Table 28 combines the August, September, and October polls to increase sample size in each region.

Table 28: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? by region, Aug., Sept. & Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Schools

If asked to choose between increasing state support for students to attend private schools or increasing funding for public schools, 28% favor more money for private school students, while 64% prefer more state money go to public schools. Views on this issue differ by party identification, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: If you were making the choice for the next Wisconsin state budget between increasing state support for students to attend private schools and increasing state support for public schools, which would you favor, private schools or public schools? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Forty-two percent of registered voters say it is more important to reduce property taxes, while 52% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. When asked in September, 41% said reduce property taxes and 51% said increase spending on public schools. Table 30 shows the partisan divide on support for property tax cuts vs. spending on schools in the September survey.

Table 30: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Opinion on the choice between reducing property taxes and increasing funding for public schools has varied substantially over time, with more concern about property taxes prior to 2015, while support for school funding began to surge in 2015, subsiding somewhat beginning in late 2018. The trend is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (among registered voters)

State funding for police and sentencing preferences

There is very high support for the state to increase funding for police, with 75% in favor of more state aid for police and 19% opposed. Majorities of each partisan group support an increase in state support for police.

Table 32: Do you favor or oppose increasing state funding for local police in Wisconsin?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Opinion on harsher sentencing for crimes is evenly divided, with 41% saying sentences should be more severe for all crimes, while 46% oppose making sentences more severe. Opinion was also evenly divided on this question when last asked in July 2016, with 49% supporting more severe sentences and 48% opposed. There is a partisan divide on this issue, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Do you support or oppose making sentences more severe for all crimes?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

More people oppose increasing incarceration of juvenile offenders, 49%, than support doing so, 35%. In July 2016, 52% opposed increased incarceration of juvenile offenders and 46% supported it. Overall opinion and the views by party are shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Do you support or oppose locking up more juvenile offenders?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Direction of state and family financial situation

A majority of respondents, 63%, think the state is off on the wrong track, while 31% say it is headed in the right direction. The trend since 2020 is shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (among registered voters)

The percentage saying their family is “living comfortably” has declined somewhat since 2020, while those “just getting by” or “struggling” have risen in number, as shown in Table 36. The current numbers are closer to the first time the question was asked, in 2016, than to the numbers in the middle period.

Table 36: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? (among registered voters)

Confidence in 2020 election

Opinion on the accuracy of the results of the 2020 presidential election continues to sharply divide the public, with 63% saying they are very or somewhat confident in the presidential election result and 34% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident in it. These views overall and by party identification are shown in Table 37.

Table 37: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Table 38 shows the trend in 2020 election confidence.

Table 38: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (among registered voters)

Evaluations of Biden, Baldwin, and Trump

In October, 42% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 55% disapproved. Table 39 shows approval overall and by party identification.

Table 39: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?, total and by party identification, October 2022 (among registered voters)

The trend in Biden approval since 2021 is shown in Table 40.

Table 40: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (among registered voters)

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 36%. The trend in views of Baldwin is shown in Table 41.

Table 41: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (among registered voters)

Table 42 shows opinion of former President Donald Trump overall and by party identification in the October survey. A large majority of Republicans hold a favorable view of Trump, while majorities of independents and Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Table 42: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet?, total and by party identification, September 2022 (among registered voters)

Views of Trump have barely changed since 2021, as shown in Table 43.

Table 43: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (among registered voters)

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