Evers, Johnson hold slim leads in Wisconsin elections, Marquette poll finds

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll found incumbents Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson hold "slim leads" against their opponents ahead of Wisconsin's elections on Nov. 8.

Poll findings on Wisconsin Senate election

The poll released Wednesday states 49 percent of respondents said they support Johnson while 48 percent said they support Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. That's compared to 51 percent for Barnes and 44 percent for Johnson in the Marquette poll in August.

Poll findings on Wisconsin governor election

For the governor's race, the poll states 47 percent of respondents supported Evers while 44 percent supported Republican challenger Tim Michels. A remaining 5 percent supported the independent candidate who has since ended her campaign.

That's compared to 48 percent supporting Evers and 44 percent for Michels in August. The month before that in June, it was Evers 48 percent, Michels 41 percent.

General election findings, according to poll

The poll also found that supporters of the political parties remain loyal. 92 percent of respondents identifying as Republicans supported Michels, while 95 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats supported Evers. Meanwhile, Johnson is supported by 97 percent of Republicans and Barnes is supported by 96 percent of Democrats, the poll found.

Among respondents who said they are independent, Evers received 25 percent while Michels received 39 percent. Among the same group of respondents, Johnson received 48 percent while Barnes received 46 percent.

Among respondents who said they are registered voters, 77 percent of Republicans, 80 percent of Democrats and 91 percent of independents said they are "absolutely certain" to vote in the Nov. 8 election.

The survey was done Sept. 6-11, 2022 and interviewed 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among likely voters is +/- 4.9 percentage points, according to the poll.

Read the full Marquette Law School Poll on their website.

View more of the poll's summary below:

Table 1: Vote for Wisconsin governor

(a) Likely voters

(b) Registered voters

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates, among likely voters in August and September and among registered voters since June.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

(b) Registered voters

Table 3: Vote for governor among likely voters, by party identification

(a) September

(b) August

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4, among likely voters.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among likely voters, by party identification

(a) September

(b) August

Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification

(a) September

(b) August

Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting

Table 7: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certainty of voting

Perceived candidate traits

Table 8 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

Table 8: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [name below] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Evers

(b) Michels

(c) Beglinger

(d) Barnes

(e) Johnson

Table 9 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin.

Table 9: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (Among registered voters.)

(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?

(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?

Table 10 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.”

Table 10: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values, or don’t they share your values? (Among registered voters.)

Perceptions of incumbents’ performance

Table 11 shows the perceived effectiveness of Evers as governor and Johnson as a senator, among registered voters.

Table 11: How effective is [Tony Evers as governor of Wisconsin]/[Ron Johnson as a US Senator]? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Tony Evers

(b) Ron Johnson

Table 12 shows the views among registered voters of how Evers and Johnson responded to the coronavirus pandemic.

Table 12: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Tony Evers]/[Ron Johnson] responded to the coronavirus pandemic? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Tony Evers

(b) Ron Johnson

Table 13 shows approval and disapproval among registered voters of how Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020.

Table 13: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020? (Among registered voters.)

Evers job approval

Table 14: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (Among registered voters.)

Important issues

Table 15: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with …, (Among registered voters.)

Table 16: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Sept. 2022 (Among registered voters.)

Table 17: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (Among registered voters.)

(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans

(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats

(c) Sorted by concern among Independents

Abortion

Table 18: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

(a) September

(b) August

Table 19: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

(a) September

(b) August

Other issues

Table 20: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (Among registered voters.)

Table 21: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (By education and age, among registered voters.)

Table 22: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Table 23: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Table 24: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (By region among registered voters, Oct. 2021, April 2022, and Sept. 2022.)

Table 25: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (By region among registered voters, Aug. and Sept. 2022.)

Table 26: Do you think the decision in 2020 to close schools and businesses and to restrict the size of public gatherings was an appropriate response to the coronavirus outbreak or was it an overreaction that did more harm than good? (Among registered voters.)

Table 27: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Table 28: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community? (Among registered voters.)

Direction of state, Biden approval, Baldwin favorability

Table 29: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (Among registered voters.)

Table 30: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (Among registered voters.)

Table 31: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (Among registered voters.)

2020 election confidence and Trump favorability

Table 32: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Table 33 shows the trend since 2021 in 2020 election confidence.

Table 33: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Among registered voters.)

Table 34: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Total and by party identification, among registered voters.)

Table 35: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Among registered voters.)

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